Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Pathological Responses and Prognosis After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has variable efficacy in patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), yet reliable noninvasive predictive markers are lacking. This study aimed to develop a radiomics model predicting pathological complete response and postneoadjuvant chemotherapy survival in NSCLC.

Materials and Methods

Retrospective data collection involved 130 patients with NSCLC who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery. Patients were randomly divided into training and independent testing sets. Nine radiomics features from prechemotherapy computed tomography (CT) images were extracted from intratumoral and peritumoral regions. An auto-encoder model was constructed, and its performance was evaluated. X-tile software classified patients into high and low-risk groups based on their predicted probabilities. survival of patients in different risk groups and the role of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy were examined.

Results

The model demonstrated area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.874 (training set) and 0.876 (testing set). The larger the area under curve (AUC), the better the model performance. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated excellent model calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, P = .763, the higher the P-value, the better the model fit) and potential clinical applicability. Survival analysis revealed significant differences in overall survival (P = .011) and disease-free survival (P = .017) between different risk groups. Adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival in the low-risk group (P = .041) but not high-risk group (P = 0.56).

Conclusion

This study represents the first successful prediction of pathological complete response achievement after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for NSCLC, as well as the patients’ survival, utilizing intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics features.