Global ocean surface and subsurface temperature forecast skill over subseasonal to seasonal timescales

IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences
Grant A. Smith, Claire M. Spillman
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of ocean temperatures, including extreme events such as marine heatwaves, have demonstrated utility in informing operational decision-making by marine end users and managing climate risk. Verification is critical for effective communication and uptake of forecast information, together with understanding ocean temperature predictability. The forecast skill of surface and subsurface ocean temperature forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology’s new ACCESS-S2 seasonal prediction system are assessed here over an extended 38-year hindcast period, from 2 weeks to 6 months into the future. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST), heat content down to 300 m (HC300), bottom temperatures on continental shelves, and mixed layer depth are compared to both satellite observations and ocean reanalyses for the globe and the Australian region, using a variety of skill metrics. ACCESS-S2 demonstrates increased SST skill over its predecessor ACCESS-S1 at subseasonal timescales for all variables assessed. Heat content skill is particularly high in the tropics but reduced in subtropical regions especially when compared to persistence. Forecast skill for ocean temperature is higher in the austral summer months than winter at lead times up to 2 months in the Western Pacific region. Mixed layer depth is poorly predicted at all lead times, with only limited areas of skill around Australia and in the south-west Pacific region. Probability of exceedance forecasts for the 90th percentile as an indicator for marine heatwave conditions, shows adequate skill for SST, HC300 and bottom temperatures, especially near shelf regions at shorter lead times. This work will underpin the future development of an operational marine heatwave forecast service, which will provide early warning of these events and thus valuable preparation windows for marine stakeholders.

亚季节到季节时间尺度上的全球海洋表面和次表层温度预报技能
对海洋温度(包括海洋热浪等极端事件)的分季节到季节性预报,在为海洋终端用户的业务决策提供信息和管理气候风险方面已显示出效用。验证对于有效传播和吸收预报信息以及了解海洋温度的可预测性至关重要。本文评估了气象局新的 ACCESS-S2 季节性预报系统对表层和次表层海洋温度预报的预报技能,时间跨度为 38 年,从 2 周到未来 6 个月不等。利用各种技能指标,将海面温度(SST)、300 米以下热含量(HC300)、大陆架底层温度和混合层深度的预测与卫星观测数据和全球及澳大利亚地区的海洋再分析数据进行了比较。就所有评估变量而言,ACCESS-S2 在亚季节时间尺度上都比其前身 ACCESS-S1 显示出更高的 SST 技能。热带地区的热含量预报技能特别高,但亚热带地区则有所降低,尤其是与持续性相比。在西太平洋地区,海洋温度的预报技能在澳大利夏季比冬季高,预报时间长达 2 个月。混合层深度在所有预报时间内的预报能力都较差,只有澳大利亚周围和西南太平洋地区的预报能力较强。作为海洋热浪条件的指标,第 90 百分位数的超标概率预测显示出对 SST、HC300 和底层温度有足够的预测能力,尤其是在较短预报时间的陆架附近地区。这项工作将为今后开发海洋热浪业务预报服务提供支持,该服务将提供这些事件的早期预警,从而为海洋利益相关者提供宝贵的准备时间。
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来源期刊
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Oceanography
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS) publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the Journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, climate change and variability , climate impacts, climate modelling , past change in the climate system including palaeoclimate variability, atmospheric dynamics, synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology and severe weather, tropical meteorology, observation systems, remote sensing of atmospheric, oceanic and land surface processes, weather, climate and ocean prediction, atmospheric and oceanic composition and chemistry, physical oceanography, air‐sea interactions, coastal zone processes, hydrology, cryosphere‐atmosphere interactions, land surface‐atmosphere interactions, space weather, including impacts and mitigation on technology, ionospheric, magnetospheric, auroral and space physics, data assimilation applied to the above subject areas . Authors are encouraged to contact the Editor for specific advice on whether the subject matter of a proposed submission is appropriate for the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science.
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