Global Burden of Dementia Death from 1990 to 2019, with Projections to 2050: An Analysis of 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Background

Dementia is a growing global health challenge. Quantifying the current burden and predicting the future increases of dementia-related deaths are necessary to enhance effective policy decisions and health system planning.

Methods

Data on dementia mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 study. The 2020–2050 dementia-related deaths were forecasted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

Globally, the number of dementia-related death increased from 0.56 million in 1990 to 1.62 million in 2019 and were estimated to increase to 4.91 million by the year 2050. Metabolic risk factors would become the most important modifiable risk factors affecting dementia death which account for 28.10% of dementia related death by the year 2050. For different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, the low SDI region would have the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (29.16 per 100,000) by 2050. Moreover, the number of dementia-related deaths under the age of 70 years was predicted to reach 0.18 million by 2050.

Conclusions

Dementia related death remains a global health problem, and health policies targeting metabolic risk factors may be an important way to alleviate this problem.