Projecting a long‐term healthcare expenditure in the United States: Do climate change, globalization, and technological innovation play a major role?

IF 3.5 4区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Natural Resources Forum Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI:10.1111/1477-8947.12485

Laurine Chikodiri Nwosu, Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi, Oktay Özkan, Dervis Kirikkaleli, Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recognizing the paramount importance of health, the United Nations Development Program has outlined sustainable development goals, emphasizing Goal 3, which focuses on ensuring and promoting healthy lives and well‐being for all. Consequently, this study delves into the determinants of healthcare expenditure (HCE), specifically focusing on financial development (FDV), tourism (TOR), technological innovations (TINs), economic growth (EG), and climate change in the United States. The investigation utilizes data spanning from the first quarter of 2000Q1 to the fourth quarter of 2020Q4. To achieve this objective, we employed innovative quantile‐based methodologies, including wavelet quantile regression and quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality. These approaches facilitated a comprehensive exploration of the dynamic interactions between HCE and its influencing factors across various quantiles and periods. The wavelet quantile regression and quantile‐on‐quantile regression analysis findings consistently indicate a positive impact of CO2, TOR, EG, globalization, FDV, foreign direct investment, and TIN on HCE in the United States. Furthermore, the results obtained from the quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality demonstrate that CO2 emissions, TOR, EG, globalization, FDV, foreign direct investment, and TIN significantly predict HCE across all quantiles. These insights have informed the formulation and implementation of various policies addressing the complex interplay between healthcare spending and its driving factors.

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预测美国的长期医疗开支：气候变化、全球化和技术创新是否发挥了重要作用？

联合国开发计划署认识到健康的极端重要性，概述了可持续发展目标，强调目标 3 的重点是确保和促进所有人的健康生活和福祉。因此，本研究深入探讨了医疗保健支出（HCE）的决定因素，特别关注美国的金融发展（FDV）、旅游业（TOR）、技术创新（TINs）、经济增长（EG）和气候变化。调查使用了 2000Q1 第一季度至 2020Q4 第四季度的数据。为实现这一目标，我们采用了创新的基于量值的方法，包括小波量值回归和量值对量值的格兰杰因果关系。这些方法有助于全面探讨 HCE 及其影响因素在不同量级和时期的动态互动关系。小波量化回归和量化对量化回归分析结果一致表明，二氧化碳、TOR、EG、全球化、FDV、外国直接投资和 TIN 对美国的 HCE 有正向影响。此外，量级对量级的格兰杰因果关系分析结果表明，二氧化碳排放、TOR、EG、全球化、FDV、外国直接投资和 TIN 对所有量级的 HCE 都有显著的预测作用。这些见解有助于制定和实施各种政策，解决医疗保健支出及其驱动因素之间复杂的相互作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Natural Resources Forum 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

6.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： Natural Resources Forum, a United Nations Sustainable Development Journal, focuses on international, multidisciplinary issues related to sustainable development, with an emphasis on developing countries. The journal seeks to address gaps in current knowledge and stimulate policy discussions on the most critical issues associated with the sustainable development agenda, by promoting research that integrates the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. Contributions that inform the global policy debate through pragmatic lessons learned from experience at the local, national, and global levels are encouraged. The Journal considers articles written on all topics relevant to sustainable development. In addition, it dedicates series, issues and special sections to specific themes that are relevant to the current discussions of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). Articles must be based on original research and must be relevant to policy-making. Criteria for selection of submitted articles include: 1) Relevance and importance of the topic discussed to sustainable development in general, both in terms of policy impacts and gaps in current knowledge being addressed by the article; 2) Treatment of the topic that incorporates social, economic and environmental aspects of sustainable development, rather than focusing purely on sectoral and/or technical aspects; 3) Articles must contain original applied material drawn from concrete projects, policy implementation, or literature reviews; purely theoretical papers are not entertained.