Identifying social tipping point through perceived peer effect

Abstract

While recent research has advanced our conceptual understanding of social tipping points, empirical studies are called for to support and advance the theories. Here, we present a conceptual method to identify whether a tipping point exists and its possible location, in terms of peer effects on green technology adoption. This conceptualization is tested using Shanghai's adoption of electric vehicles. By analyzing self-reported individual levels of threshold in 1,111 valid completes through an online survey, we estimate that the perceived social tipping point in Shanghai falls between 31 and 40 % of peers adopting EVs. Beyond this level, a self-sustaining uptake can be anticipated. Mediation analysis reveals that peer learning and conformity to social norms underpin such peer effects. We discuss the relative importance of peer effects in triggering a broader transition, and find that other factors, such as technology, infrastructure, and policies, are critical for creating an enabling environment to induce positive cascades.