Hao Huang, Jiannan Mao, Leilei Kang, Weike Lu, Sijia Zhang, Lan Liu
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Network-wide short-term passenger flow prediction is critical for the operation and management of metro systems. However, it is challenging due to the inherent non-stationarity, nonlinearity, and spatial–temporal dependencies within passenger flow. To tackle these challenges, this paper introduces a hybrid model called multi-scale dynamic propagation spatial–temporal network (MSDPSTN). Specifically, the model employs multivariate empirical mode decomposition to jointly decompose the multivariate passenger flow into multi-scale intrinsic mode functions. Then, a set of dynamic graphs is developed to reveal the passenger propagation law in metro networks. Based on the representation, a deep learning model is proposed to achieve multistep passenger flow prediction, which employs the dynamic propagation graph attention network with long short-term memory to extract the spatial–temporal dependencies. Extensive experiments conducted on a real-world dataset from Chengdu, China, validate the superiority of the proposed model. Compared to state-of-the-art baselines, MSDPSTN reduces the mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error by at least 3.243%, 4.451%, and 4.139%, respectively. Further quantitative analyses confirm the effectiveness of the components in MSDPSTN. This paper contributes to addressing inherent features of passenger flow to enhance prediction performance, offering critical insights for decision-makers in implementing real-time operational strategies.
期刊介绍:
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering stands as a scholarly, peer-reviewed archival journal, serving as a vital link between advancements in computer technology and civil and infrastructure engineering. The journal serves as a distinctive platform for the publication of original articles, spotlighting novel computational techniques and inventive applications of computers. Specifically, it concentrates on recent progress in computer and information technologies, fostering the development and application of emerging computing paradigms.
Encompassing a broad scope, the journal addresses bridge, construction, environmental, highway, geotechnical, structural, transportation, and water resources engineering. It extends its reach to the management of infrastructure systems, covering domains such as highways, bridges, pavements, airports, and utilities. The journal delves into areas like artificial intelligence, cognitive modeling, concurrent engineering, database management, distributed computing, evolutionary computing, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, geometric modeling, internet-based technologies, knowledge discovery and engineering, machine learning, mobile computing, multimedia technologies, networking, neural network computing, optimization and search, parallel processing, robotics, smart structures, software engineering, virtual reality, and visualization techniques.