Effects of weather and climate on fluctuations of grain prices in southwestern Bohemia, 1725–1824 CE

IF 3.8 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Climate of The Past Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI:10.5194/cp-20-1017-2024

Rudolf Brázdil, Jan Lhoták, Kateřina Chromá, Petr Dobrovolný

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract. Grain prices in early modern Europe reflected the effects of weather and climate on crop yields and a complex array of societal and socio-economic factors. This study presents a newly developed series of grain prices for Sušice (southwestern Bohemia, Czech Republic) for the period 1725–1824 CE, based on various archival sources. It aims to analyse their relationships with weather and climate, represented by temperature, precipitation, and drought (self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, scPDSI) reconstructions, as well as particular weather extremes and anomalies reported in documentary evidence. Wheat, rye, barley, and oats series in Sušice showed high mutual correlations. The mean highest prices during the year typically occurred from May to July before the harvest, while prices usually declined afterwards. Wheat, rye, and barley prices were significantly negatively correlated with spring temperatures and positively correlated with scPDSI from winter to summer. This indicates that wetter winters, cooler and wetter springs, and wetter summers contributed to higher prices. The extremely high grain prices in the years 1746, 1771–1772, 1802–1806, and 1816–1817 were separately analysed with respect to weather and climate patterns and other socio-economic and political factors. The results obtained were discussed in relation to data uncertainty, factors influencing grain prices, and the broader European context.

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天气和气候对波希米亚西南部谷物价格波动的影响，公元 1725-1824 年

摘要近代早期欧洲的谷物价格反映了天气和气候对作物产量的影响以及一系列复杂的社会和社会经济因素。本研究以各种档案资料为基础，介绍了新开发的公元 1725-1824 年期间苏希策（捷克共和国波希米亚西南部）的谷物价格系列。研究旨在分析其与天气和气候的关系，包括气温、降水和干旱（自校准帕尔默干旱严重程度指数，scPDSI）重建，以及文献证据中报告的特定极端天气和异常情况。苏希策的小麦、黑麦、大麦和燕麦系列显示出高度的相互关联性。当年的平均最高价格通常出现在收割前的 5 月至 7 月，而收割后价格通常会下降。小麦、黑麦和大麦的价格与春季气温呈显著负相关，而与从冬季到夏季的 scPDSI 呈正相关。这表明，更潮湿的冬季、更凉爽潮湿的春季和更潮湿的夏季有助于提高价格。对 1746 年、1771-1772 年、1802-1806 年和 1816-1817 年极高的谷物价格与天气和气候模式以及其他社会经济和政治因素分别进行了分析。所得出的结果与数据的不确定性、影响谷物价格的因素以及更广泛的欧洲背景进行了讨论。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Climate of The Past 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

14.00%

发文量

120

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate of the Past (CP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on the climate history of the Earth. CP covers all temporal scales of climate change and variability, from geological time through to multidecadal studies of the last century. Studies focusing mainly on present and future climate are not within scope. The main subject areas are the following: reconstructions of past climate based on instrumental and historical data as well as proxy data from marine and terrestrial (including ice) archives; development and validation of new proxies, improvements of the precision and accuracy of proxy data; theoretical and empirical studies of processes in and feedback mechanisms between all climate system components in relation to past climate change on all space scales and timescales; simulation of past climate and model-based interpretation of palaeoclimate data for a better understanding of present and future climate variability and climate change.