Sustainability under policy transitions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China: Historical and the shared socio-economic pathways

IF 6.5 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
Hongyan Bian , Yaxue Zhao , Jie Gao , Shiya wen , Jiaxuan Sun
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Abstract

China has responded to the sustainability challenges via a range of policies with evolving objectives in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) since the 1990s. However, the multi-scale analysis of YEB's comprehensive sustainability and the human-environment nexus amid policy impact remains unexplored. A comprehensive review and forecast of historical and future sustainability pathways under policy impacts are imperative. Here, we systematically examined sustainability under ten National Policies (NPs) and Regional Development Policies (RDPs), forecasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the 21st Century using the entropy weight method and machine learning models. We found that RDPs have contributed to 1.6 times increase in human development from 2000 to 2018 across dimensions of demography, economy, and society in YEB. However, it also revealed that the west-east disparity has widened from 0.14 to 0.19 during this period. Conservation efforts and national initiatives for ecological civilization have led to environmental improvement in the YEB, especially after the RDP3 in 2014, when the eastern provinces, like Shanghai, have already surpassed the peak inverted U-shape curve of the environmental-human nexus. Among the SSPs, SSP1 shows the most sustainable scenario with the lowest ecological footprint at 6.2 hm2 per capita and the highest value of regional sustainability and environmental subsystem. To achieve SSP1, an iterative, inclusive, and context-specific Science-Policy-Practice dialogue is essential. This enables feedback loops and collaboration among policymakers, scientists, and practitioners to foster regional sustainability by studying the implications of historical and future pathways.

Abstract Image

中国长江经济带政策转型下的可持续性:历史与共同的社会经济路径
自 20 世纪 90 年代以来,中国在长江经济带(YEB)通过一系列目标不断变化的政策来应对可持续发展的挑战。然而,在政策影响下,对 YEB 的综合可持续性和人类与环境关系的多尺度分析仍有待探索。全面回顾和预测政策影响下的历史和未来可持续发展路径势在必行。在此,我们系统地研究了十项国家政策(NPs)和地区发展政策(RDPs)下的可持续性,并利用熵权法和机器学习模型预测了 21 世纪的共享社会经济路径(SSPs)。我们发现,从 2000 年到 2018 年,RDP 在 YEB 的人口、经济和社会等维度上促进了人类发展的 1.6 倍增长。但同时也发现,在此期间,西-东差距从 0.14 扩大到了 0.19。生态保护的努力和国家生态文明建设的举措使 YEB 地区的环境得到了改善,尤其是在 2014 年 RDP3 之后,东部省份(如上海)已经超过了环境与人类关系倒 U 型曲线的峰值。在各种可持续发展方案中,可持续发展方案 1 是最具可持续性的方案,其生态足迹最低,仅为人均 6.2 hm2,区域可持续性和环境子系统的价值最高。要实现 SSP1,迭代、包容和针对具体情况的 "科学-政策-实践 "对话至关重要。这可以在政策制定者、科学家和实践者之间形成反馈回路并开展合作,通过研究历史和未来路径的影响来促进区域可持续性。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.50
自引率
10.30%
发文量
151
审稿时长
38 days
期刊介绍: Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.
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