Peter Bofinger, Lisa Geißendörfer, Thomas Haas, Fabian Mayer
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The nexus between the financial system and economic development is an issue that is as important for economic theory as it is for economic policy. This article provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the standard literature that uses Joseph A. Schumpeter as an academic patron. The starting point of our study is the theoretical finding that Schumpeter is misinterpreted in the finance and growth literature. We show that this leads to puzzling empirical results and difficulties in explaining even fundamental relationships. After a critical analysis of the literature, we provide our own empirical analysis using a panel of 43 countries to explore the relationships between finance and growth variables based on a truly Schumpeterian and thus monetary growth model. Our empirical analysis shows that (i) dynamic credit variables are better at describing the finance and growth nexus than static credit variables, (ii) as saving is not a prerequisite for credit, we do not find a statistically significant relationship between household saving and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and (iii) in line with the empirical literature, we find a bi-directional relationship between credit and GDP growth.
金融体系与经济发展之间的关系是一个对经济理论和经济政策同样重要的问题。本文对以约瑟夫-熊彼特(Joseph A. Schumpeter)为学术赞助人的标准文献进行了理论和实证分析。我们研究的出发点是一个理论发现,即熊彼特在金融和增长文献中被误读了。我们表明,这导致了令人费解的实证结果,甚至难以解释基本的关系。在对相关文献进行批判性分析之后,我们利用 43 个国家的面板数据进行了自己的实证分析,以一个真正的熊彼特货币增长模型为基础,探讨金融与增长变量之间的关系。我们的实证分析表明:(i) 动态信贷变量比静态信贷变量更能说明金融与增长之间的关系;(ii) 由于储蓄不是信贷的先决条件,我们没有发现家庭储蓄与国内生产总值(GDP)增长之间存在统计意义上的显著关系;(iii) 与实证文献一致,我们发现信贷与 GDP 增长之间存在双向关系。