Causality Analysis between BIST-100, Investor Risk Appetite, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Interest Rate in Türkiye Economy

Abstract

In this study, econometric methods are used to investigate the causality relationships between key macroeconomic and financial indicators in Türkiye. The research focuses on the Türkiye economy and financial markets for the period 2011-2019. Monthly data of Borsa Istanbul (BIST-100), Investor Risk Appetite Index (RISE), exchange rate, inflation and interest rate are analyzed by using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Our findings show that there is one-way causality from BIST-100 index to inflation, exchange rate to inflation, investor risk appetite index to interest rate and BIST 100 index to investor risk appetite index. These results provide an understanding of the dynamic relationships between these indicators and provide implications for the Türkiye economy.