Electricity climate-compatibility index: Measuring global progress towards decarbonising the power sector

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel index, ECI (Electricity Climate-Compatibility Index), to measure global fossil fuel electricity generation alignment with climate targets. Net anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) must approach zero by mid-century to stabilise the mean temperature to well below 2°C. Pursuing carbon neutrality will require immediate action if we are to avoid the economic risks associated with a delayed, more abrupt energy transition. This paper reviewed the existing literature and found insufficient indicators for country-level climate targets in electricity generation. Therefore, the paper proposes a novel electricity climate-compatibility index (ECI) to address the gap. The index computes climate compatibility or incompatibility as the difference between fossil fuel electricity generation permitted in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) country-level climate scenarios and that which is generated from operational, under-construction and planned power generation assets. The ECI correlates positively in specific instances with relatable metrics such as Energy Transition Index (ETI) and Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) but provides a better understanding of the climate-incompatible generation of fossil fuel plants for a decarbonised power sector.