{"title":"A deep learning framework for prediction of crop yield in Australia under the impact of climate change","authors":"Haydar Demirhan","doi":"10.1016/j.inpa.2024.04.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of crop yields is essential to ensure food security. In this study, a new deep neural networks framework is developed to predict crop yields in Australia, considering the impact of climate change, fertilizer use, and crop area. It is implemented for oats, corn, rice, and wheat crops, and its forecasting performance is benchmarked against five statistical and machine learning methods. All the software codes for the implementation of the proposed framework are freely available. The proposed framework shows the highest forecasting performance for all the considered crop types. It provides 23%, 38%, 39%, and 40% lower average mean absolute error than the benchmark methods for oat, corn, rice, and wheat crops, respectively. The reductions in average root mean squared error are 19%, 25%, 37%, and 29% over the benchmark methods. Then, it is used to predict yields of the considered crops in Australia towards 2025 under six different climate change scenarios. It is observed that although climate change has some boosting impact on crop yield, it is not sustainable to meet the demand. However, it is possible to keep crop yields rising while mitigating climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":53443,"journal":{"name":"Information Processing in Agriculture","volume":"12 1","pages":"Pages 125-138"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Information Processing in Agriculture","FirstCategoryId":"1091","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214317324000246","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Accurate prediction of crop yields is essential to ensure food security. In this study, a new deep neural networks framework is developed to predict crop yields in Australia, considering the impact of climate change, fertilizer use, and crop area. It is implemented for oats, corn, rice, and wheat crops, and its forecasting performance is benchmarked against five statistical and machine learning methods. All the software codes for the implementation of the proposed framework are freely available. The proposed framework shows the highest forecasting performance for all the considered crop types. It provides 23%, 38%, 39%, and 40% lower average mean absolute error than the benchmark methods for oat, corn, rice, and wheat crops, respectively. The reductions in average root mean squared error are 19%, 25%, 37%, and 29% over the benchmark methods. Then, it is used to predict yields of the considered crops in Australia towards 2025 under six different climate change scenarios. It is observed that although climate change has some boosting impact on crop yield, it is not sustainable to meet the demand. However, it is possible to keep crop yields rising while mitigating climate change.
期刊介绍:
Information Processing in Agriculture (IPA) was established in 2013 and it encourages the development towards a science and technology of information processing in agriculture, through the following aims: • Promote the use of knowledge and methods from the information processing technologies in the agriculture; • Illustrate the experiences and publications of the institutes, universities and government, and also the profitable technologies on agriculture; • Provide opportunities and platform for exchanging knowledge, strategies and experiences among the researchers in information processing worldwide; • Promote and encourage interactions among agriculture Scientists, Meteorologists, Biologists (Pathologists/Entomologists) with IT Professionals and other stakeholders to develop and implement methods, techniques, tools, and issues related to information processing technology in agriculture; • Create and promote expert groups for development of agro-meteorological databases, crop and livestock modelling and applications for development of crop performance based decision support system. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to: • Smart Sensor and Wireless Sensor Network • Remote Sensing • Simulation, Optimization, Modeling and Automatic Control • Decision Support Systems, Intelligent Systems and Artificial Intelligence • Computer Vision and Image Processing • Inspection and Traceability for Food Quality • Precision Agriculture and Intelligent Instrument • The Internet of Things and Cloud Computing • Big Data and Data Mining