Capacity Allocation in Cancer Centers Considering Demand Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper introduces a model to aid decision-makers in answering many of the important questions regarding how best to operate a cancer center. This study aims to allocate the available cancer center capacity to different cancer types to minimize the deviation in patient demand satisfied from desired supply targets across multiple cancer types. A stochastic chance-constrained model is proposed to consider uncertainties in new and returning patient demand. The proposed model determines the optimal specialization mix for oncologists based on the distribution of demand by cancer type, preventing potential mismatches. Additionally, it aims to balance workloads among oncologists and individual clinics and indirectly reduce support service costs by limiting their clinic days. Numerical results are presented using historical data collected from our collaborating cancer center to demonstrate the usefulness of the model. The results confirm that the ability to satisfy patient demand increases as oncologists become more flexible. In addition, the results show that even having a small number of highly flexible oncologists is sufficient to achieve strong patient demand satisfaction. Moreover, restricting the allowable workload difference among oncologists achieves an acceptable trade-off between workload balance and satisfying patient demand.