Assessing the US foreign assistance activities impact on violent conflicts

Daniel F Feze, Mark A Gallagher
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Abstract

The Global Fragility Act, H.R.2116 116th Congress, directs the Department of State to establish an interagency initiative to stabilize conflict-affected areas and prevent violence globally. We propose and demonstrate an approach to evaluate the success of funding these initiatives. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has identified deteriorating economies, weak, or illegitimate political institutions, and competition over natural resources as causes of violence, extremism, and instability. The agency prioritizes mitigating the causes and consequences of violent conflicts, instability, and extremism and funds corresponding programs. Focused on military aid, we quantitatively assess these programs effectiveness at preventing or deescalating conflicts during 2010 to 2020. Our statistical analysis shows the funds during that period did not have an immediate impact on countries prone to violence. However, cumulative long-term relationships exist between some funds and the global conflict levels. As the total amount of 5 years cumulative Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) implemented funds increases, the total number of countries not-in-conflict increases while the total number of the most violent countries decreases. Those funds also correlate to the decline in total conflict levels during that timeframe. This quantitative approach assesses the aggregate effectiveness of aid across various countries.
评估美国对外援助活动对暴力冲突的影响
第 116 届国会通过的《全球脆弱性法案》(H.R.2116)指示国务院制定一项机构间倡议,在全球范围内稳定受冲突影响的地区并预防暴力。我们提出并展示了一种方法来评估资助这些计划的成功与否。美国国际开发署(USAID)认为,经济恶化、政治体制薄弱或不合法以及对自然资源的争夺是导致暴力、极端主义和不稳定的原因。该机构优先考虑减轻暴力冲突、不稳定和极端主义的原因和后果,并资助相应的项目。以军事援助为重点,我们对 2010 年至 2020 年期间这些计划在预防或缓和冲突方面的有效性进行了定量评估。我们的统计分析表明,这一时期的资金并未对暴力频发的国家产生立竿见影的影响。但是,一些基金与全球冲突水平之间存在长期累积关系。随着国防安全合作局(DSCA)实施的 5 年累计资金总额的增加,非冲突国家的总数增加,而最暴力国家的总数减少。这些资金也与该时间段内冲突总数的下降相关。这种定量方法评估了援助在不同国家的总体效果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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