A Spatiotemporal Assessment of the Precipitation Variability and Pattern, and an Evaluation of the Predictive Reliability, of Global Climate Models over Bihar

Abstract

Climate change is significantly altering precipitation patterns, leading to spatiotemporal changes throughout the world. In particular, the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to heavy rainfall, floods, and droughts, have been a cause of concern. A comprehensive understanding of these changes in precipitation patterns on a regional scale is essential to enhance resilience against the adverse effects of climate change. The present study, focused on the state of Bihar in India, uses a long-term (1901–2020) gridded precipitation dataset to analyze the effect of climate change. Change point detection tests divide the time series into two epochs: 1901–1960 and 1961–2020, with 1960 as the change point year. Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Sen’s slope estimator tests are used to identify trends in seasonal and annual time scales, while Centroidal Day (CD) analysis is performed to determine changes in temporal patterns of rainfall. The results show significant variability in seasonal rainfall, with the nature of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon observed to have flipped in second epoch. The daily rainfall intensity during the monsoon season has increased considerably, particularly in north Bihar, while the extreme rainfall has increased by 60.6 mm/day in the second epoch. The surface runoff increased by approximately 13.43% from 2001 to 2020. Further, 13 Global Climate Models (GCMs) evaluate future scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 370 and SSP585. The suitability analysis of these GCMs, based on probability density function (PDF), monthly mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and percentage bias (P-Bias), suggests that EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR are the three best GCMs representative of rainfall in Bihar. A Bayesian model-averaged (BMA) multi-model ensemble reflects the variability expected in the future with the least uncertainty. The present study’s findings clarify the current state of variability, patterns and trends in precipitation, while suggesting the most appropriate GCMs for better decision-making and preparedness.