Solar Radiation Prediction in Adrar, Algeria: A Case Study of Hybrid Extreme Machine-Based Techniques

Abstract

This study delves into the application of hybrid extreme machine-based techniques for solar radiation prediction in Adrar, Algeria. The models under evaluation include the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Weighted Extreme Learning Machine (WELM), and Self-Adaptive Extreme Learning Machine (SA-ELM), with a comparative analysis based on various performance metrics. The results show that SA-ELM achieves the highest accuracy with an R2 of 0.97, outperforming ELM and WELM by 4.6% and 15.4% respectively in terms of R2. SA-ELM also has the lowest MPE, RMSE and RRMSE values, indicating a higher accuracy in predicting global radiation. Furthermore, comparison with previously employed prediction techniques solidifies SA-ELM’s superiority, evident in its 0.275 RMSE.The study explores different input combinations for predicting global radiation in the study region, concluding that incorporating all relevant inputs yields optimal performance, although reduced input scenarios can still provide practical accuracy when data availability is limited. These results highlight the effectiveness of the SA-ELM model in accurately predicting global radiation, which is expected to have significant implications for renewable energy applications in the region. However, further testing and evaluation of the models in different regions and under different weather conditions is recommended to improve the generalizability and robustness of the results.