{"title":"Are national or regional surveys useful for nowcasting regional jobseekers? The case of the French region of Pays-de-la-Loire","authors":"Clément Cariou, Amélie Charles, Olivier Darné","doi":"10.1002/for.3125","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper we develop nowcasting models for the Pays-de-la-Loire's jobseekers, a dynamic French regional economy. We ask whether these regional nowcasts are more accurate by only using the regional data or by combining the national and regional data. For this purpose, we use penalized regressions, random forest, and dynamic factor models as well as dimension reduction approaches. The best nowcasting performance is provided by the DFM estimated on the regional and regional-national databases as well as the Elastic-Net model with a prior screening step for which the national data are the most frequently selected data. For the latter, it appears that the Change in foreign orders in the industry sector, the OECD Composite leading indicator, and the BdF Business sentiment indicator are among the major predictors.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"43 6","pages":"2341-2357"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3125","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3125","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this paper we develop nowcasting models for the Pays-de-la-Loire's jobseekers, a dynamic French regional economy. We ask whether these regional nowcasts are more accurate by only using the regional data or by combining the national and regional data. For this purpose, we use penalized regressions, random forest, and dynamic factor models as well as dimension reduction approaches. The best nowcasting performance is provided by the DFM estimated on the regional and regional-national databases as well as the Elastic-Net model with a prior screening step for which the national data are the most frequently selected data. For the latter, it appears that the Change in foreign orders in the industry sector, the OECD Composite leading indicator, and the BdF Business sentiment indicator are among the major predictors.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
