{"title":"A clinical trial termination prediction model based on denoising autoencoder and deep survival regression","authors":"Huamei Qi, Wenhui Yang, Wenqin Zou, Yuxuan Hu","doi":"10.1002/qub2.43","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Effective clinical trials are necessary for understanding medical advances but early termination of trials can result in unnecessary waste of resources. Survival models can be used to predict survival probabilities in such trials. However, survival data from clinical trials are sparse, and DeepSurv cannot accurately capture their effective features, making the models weak in generalization and decreasing their prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a survival prediction model for clinical trial completion based on the combination of denoising autoencoder (DAE) and DeepSurv models. The DAE is used to obtain a robust representation of features by breaking the loop of raw features after autoencoder training, and then the robust features are provided to DeepSurv as input for training. The clinical trial dataset for training the model was obtained from the ClinicalTrials.gov dataset. A study of clinical trial completion in pregnant women was conducted in response to the fact that many current clinical trials exclude pregnant women. The experimental results showed that the denoising autoencoder and deep survival regression (DAE‐DSR) model was able to extract meaningful and robust features for survival analysis; the C‐index of the training and test datasets were 0.74 and 0.75 respectively. Compared with the Cox proportional hazards model and DeepSurv model, the survival analysis curves obtained by using DAE‐DSR model had more prominent features, and the model was more robust and performed better in actual prediction.","PeriodicalId":45660,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quantitative Biology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qub2.43","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Effective clinical trials are necessary for understanding medical advances but early termination of trials can result in unnecessary waste of resources. Survival models can be used to predict survival probabilities in such trials. However, survival data from clinical trials are sparse, and DeepSurv cannot accurately capture their effective features, making the models weak in generalization and decreasing their prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a survival prediction model for clinical trial completion based on the combination of denoising autoencoder (DAE) and DeepSurv models. The DAE is used to obtain a robust representation of features by breaking the loop of raw features after autoencoder training, and then the robust features are provided to DeepSurv as input for training. The clinical trial dataset for training the model was obtained from the ClinicalTrials.gov dataset. A study of clinical trial completion in pregnant women was conducted in response to the fact that many current clinical trials exclude pregnant women. The experimental results showed that the denoising autoencoder and deep survival regression (DAE‐DSR) model was able to extract meaningful and robust features for survival analysis; the C‐index of the training and test datasets were 0.74 and 0.75 respectively. Compared with the Cox proportional hazards model and DeepSurv model, the survival analysis curves obtained by using DAE‐DSR model had more prominent features, and the model was more robust and performed better in actual prediction.
期刊介绍:
Quantitative Biology is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on original research that uses quantitative approaches and technologies to analyze and integrate biological systems, construct and model engineered life systems, and gain a deeper understanding of the life sciences. It aims to provide a platform for not only the analysis but also the integration and construction of biological systems. It is a quarterly journal seeking to provide an inter- and multi-disciplinary forum for a broad blend of peer-reviewed academic papers in order to promote rapid communication and exchange between scientists in the East and the West. The content of Quantitative Biology will mainly focus on the two broad and related areas: ·bioinformatics and computational biology, which focuses on dealing with information technologies and computational methodologies that can efficiently and accurately manipulate –omics data and transform molecular information into biological knowledge. ·systems and synthetic biology, which focuses on complex interactions in biological systems and the emergent functional properties, and on the design and construction of new biological functions and systems. Its goal is to reflect the significant advances made in quantitatively investigating and modeling both natural and engineered life systems at the molecular and higher levels. The journal particularly encourages original papers that link novel theory with cutting-edge experiments, especially in the newly emerging and multi-disciplinary areas of research. The journal also welcomes high-quality reviews and perspective articles.