The Influence of Long-term and Short-term Variables on the Oil Prices, Money Supply, Policy Rates, Output Gaps, Rupiah Exchange Rate and Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Inflation in Indonesia

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI:10.37394/23207.2024.21.79

Heru Wahyudi

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Abstract

This study examines the influence of long-term and short-term variables on oil prices, money supply, policy rates, gross fixed capital formation (PMTB), rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, and output gaps on inflation in Indonesia. Indonesia is one of the countries with the highest population in the world as well as one of the countries with the most significant oil wealth in the world. However, Indonesia is still classified as a developing country. One of the indicators in a country’s economy is the inflation rate. This study used secondary data from 2006:Q1-2018:Q4 with the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method. The result of this study is that the variable oil prices and money supply in the short and long term have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia’s inflation. In the short and long term, variable policy rates negatively and significantly impact Indonesia’s inflation. Gross fixed capital formation and the output gap in the long and short term have an insignificant positive impact on Indonesia’s inflation.

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石油价格、货币供应量、政策利率、产出缺口、卢比汇率和固定资本形成总额等长期和短期变量对印度尼西亚通货膨胀的影响

本研究探讨了石油价格、货币供应量、政策利率、固定资本形成总额（PMTB）、印尼盾兑美元汇率和产出缺口等长期和短期变量对印度尼西亚通货膨胀的影响。印度尼西亚是世界上人口最多的国家之一，也是世界上石油财富最丰富的国家之一。然而，印尼仍被归类为发展中国家。通货膨胀率是衡量一个国家经济的指标之一。本研究使用了 2006:Q1-2018:Q4 的二手数据，并采用了误差修正模型（ECM）分析方法。研究结果表明，短期和长期变量石油价格和货币供应量对印尼的通货膨胀率有积极而显著的影响。从短期和长期来看，可变的政策利率对印尼的通货膨胀有显著的负面影响。长期和短期的固定资本形成总额和产出缺口对印尼通货膨胀的积极影响不明显。

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来源期刊

WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

180

期刊介绍： WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics publishes original research papers relating to the global economy. We aim to bring important work using any economic approach to a wide international audience and therefore only publish papers of exceptional scientific value that advance our understanding of finances. The research presented must transcend the limits of case studies, while both experimental and theoretical studies are accepted. While its main emphasis is economic, it is a multi-disciplinary journal and therefore its content mirrors the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with the international dimensions of business, economics, finance, history, law, marketing, management, political science, and related areas. It also welcomes scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations.