Analysis and Prediction of Airspace Availability for Urban Air Mobility Operations in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region

Abstract

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging form of transportation that is expected to introduce novel flight networks into already busy and complex airspace surrounding major cities and metropolitan regions. This paper studies the dynamics of urban airspace use by conventional aircraft over the Sao Paulo metropolitan region in order to identify and predict which airspace volumes are least constrained and best accessible for future UAM flights. Using historical flight tracking data, clustering analysis is first performed to identify departure and arrival trajectory patterns flown by conventional traffic at the two major airports – Sao Paulo/Guarulhos International airport and Sao Paulo/Congonhas airport. We then create a probabilistic model of the spatiotemporal distribution of air traffic under known meteorological conditions, which enables the prediction of active procedures, their spatial confidence regions and the resulting airspace availability for UAM in response to dynamic operational factors. The data-based approach allowed for a high-fidelity characterization of the Sao Paulo urban airspace use patterns as well as for accurate predictions of the available airspace for UAM, bringing novel insights and capabilities in support of dynamic and efficient urban airspace management.