Environmental Kuznets curve of carbon emissions from China’s forest products industry and decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions

Abstract

Carbon emissions from China’s forest products industry were considered based on the data of 2001-2020. Then a carbon emissions Kuznets curve was constructed to judge the relationship between the economic development level and carbon emissions. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) was used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions. The carbon emissions from China’s forest products industry showed a trend of rapid growth in the early stage and slow decline in the later stage, increasing from 19.46 million tonnes in 2001 to 54.18 million tonnes in 2020. Consumption of raw coal was the main reason for the increase in carbon emissions. There was an inverted-U relationship between the economic development level and carbon emissions, and the industry output value of CNY 3306.56 billion was the theoretical inflection point. The current economic development level of the industry was in the left-half part of the inverted “U” shape, indicating that carbon emissions from this industry will continue to increase with the increase of industrial output. Economic development was the key factor driving the increase of carbon emissions in the forest products industry, while the energy intensity was the key factor inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions.