Modelling stochastic and quasi-periodic behaviour in stellar time-series: Gaussian process regression versus power-spectrum fitting

Abstract

As the hunt for an Earth-like exoplanets has intensified in recent years, so has the effort to characterise and model the stellar signals that can hide or mimic small planetary signals. Stellar variability arises from a number of sources, including granulation, supergranulation, oscillations and activity, all of which result in quasi-periodic or stochastic behaviour in photometric and/or radial velocity observations. Traditionally, the characterisation of these signals has mostly been done in the frequency domain. However, the recent development of scalable Gaussian process regression methods makes direct time-domain modelling of stochastic processes a feasible and arguably preferable alternative, obviating the need to estimate the power spectral density of the data before modelling it. In this paper, we compare the two approaches using a series of experiments on simulated data. We show that frequency domain modelling can lead to inaccurate results, especially when the time sampling is irregular. By contrast, Gaussian process regression results are often more precise, and systematically more accurate, in both the regular and irregular time sampling regimes. While this work was motivated by the analysis of radial velocity and photometry observations of main sequence stars in the context of planet searches, we note that our results may also have applications for the study of other types of astrophysical variability such as quasi-periodic oscillations in X-ray binaries and active galactic nuclei variability.