Exploring the performance of protected areas in alleviating future human pressure

IF 5.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Ambio Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI:10.1007/s13280-024-02023-6

Qiqi Liu, Xiaolan Tang, Tian Hang, Yunfei Wu, Yuanyuan Liu, Tianrui Song, Youngkeun Song

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Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) are effective in mitigating human pressures, yet their future pressure alleviating effects remain unclear. In this study, we employed the ConvLSTM model to forecast the future human footprint and analyzed human pressure trends using Theil–Sen median and Mann–Kendall tests. We further evaluated the mitigating effects of PAs within their buffer zones (1–10 km) and the contributions of different IUCN categories of PAs to mitigating human pressure using linear regression models. The results indicate that by 2035, the average human pressure value is expected to increase by 11%, with trends exhibiting a polarized pattern. Furthermore, PAs also effectively mitigate human pressure within their 1 km buffer zones. Different categories of PAs vary in their effectiveness in mitigating human pressure, and stricter conservation areas are not always the most effective. This study can offer insights for evaluating the effectiveness of PAs in reducing human pressure and advocate for their targeted management in urban areas.

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探索保护区在减轻未来人类压力方面的表现。

保护区（PA）能有效缓解人类压力，但其未来的压力缓解效果仍不明确。在本研究中，我们采用 ConvLSTM 模型预测了未来的人类足迹，并利用 Theil-Sen 中位数和 Mann-Kendall 检验分析了人类压力趋势。我们还利用线性回归模型进一步评估了保护区缓冲区（1-10 公里）内的缓解作用以及世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）不同类别保护区对缓解人类压力的贡献。结果表明，到 2035 年，人类压力的平均值预计将增加 11%，并呈现两极化趋势。此外，保护区还能有效缓解其 1 公里缓冲区内的人类压力。不同类别的保护区在缓解人类压力方面的效果各不相同，更严格的保护区并不总是最有效的。本研究可为评估保护区在减轻人类压力方面的成效提供启示，并倡导在城市地区对保护区进行有针对性的管理。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ambio 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

14.30

自引率

3.10%

发文量

123

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Explores the link between anthropogenic activities and the environment, Ambio encourages multi- or interdisciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. Ambio addresses the scientific, social, economic, and cultural factors that influence the condition of the human environment. Ambio particularly encourages multi- or inter-disciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. For more than 45 years Ambio has brought international perspective to important developments in environmental research, policy and related activities for an international readership of specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers and interested laymen.