Machine learning for water demand forecasting: case study in a Brazilian coastal city

Abstract

Water resources management is crucial for human well-being and contemporary socio-economic development. However, the increasing use of water has led to various problems that affect its quality and availability. To address these issues, accurate forecasting of water consumption is essential for the optimal operation of water collection, treatment, and distribution systems. This study aims to compare four machine learning methods for predicting daily urban water demand in a Brazilian coastal tourist city (Guaratuba – Paraná). Historical data from the city’s water distribution system, spanning from 2016 to 2019 (1,461 measurements in total), were considered along with meteorological and calendar data to conduct the investigation. Three time series cross-validation approaches were considered for each method, thus totaling 12 evaluation settings. All models were subjected to hyperparameter optimization and evaluated using appropriate performance metrics from the literature. Results demonstrate the importance of using nonlinear models to predict short-term water demand, highlighting the problem’s complexity. From the compared models, multilayer perceptron provided the best results. Finally, regardless of the model, the best results were obtained by applying an expanding window time series cross-validation, indicating that the more historical data available, the better, in this particular case.