Crime over the welfare payment cycle

Abstract

This study examines criminal behavior over the welfare payment cycle. Using unique individual-level administrative data on welfare recipients, we exploit exogenous variation in payment dates over time and across Dutch municipalities. The results suggest that financially motivated crime increases by 12% over the payment cycle, indicating serious financial constraints toward the end of the month. Non-financially motivated offenses, particularly sex and violent offenses and driving under the influence offenses (DUIs), peak directly after benefits receipt and decrease over the payment cycle, suggesting an underlying spike in consumption conducive to crime. Public order offenses and DUIs also increase with weekend disbursement.