Cost–Utility Analysis of Vericiguat in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction After Worsening Heart Failure Events in China

Abstract

Objective

Vericiguat is a new medication to demonstrate clinical efficacy in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) after worsening heart failure (WHF) events, but its cost–utility was unknown. We aimed to assess the cost–utility of combining the application of vericiguat with standard treatment in HFrEF patients who had WHF events.

Methods

A multistate Markov model was implemented to mimic the economic results of HFrEF patients who had WHF events in China after receiving vericiguat or placebo. An analysis of cost–utility was conducted; most parameters were set according to the published studies and related databases. All the utilities and costs were decreased at a rate of 5% annually. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were the primary outcome measure. We also conducted sensitivity analyses.

Results

Over a 20 year lifetime horizon, additional use of vericiguat led to an elevated cost from US$9725.03 to US$20,660.76 at the current vericiguat costs. This was related to increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from 2.50 to 2.66, along with an ICER of US$65,057.24 per QALY, which was over the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$36,096.30 per QALY. If the vericiguat costs were discounted at 80%, it contributed to an ICER of US$12,226.77 per QALY. Additional use of vericiguat for patients with plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) of ≤ 5314 pg per ml produced an ICER of US$23,688.46 per QALY. The outcomes of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed the risk of death from cardiovascular disease in both groups was variable with the highest sensitivity. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that 41.6% of the mimicked population receiving vericiguat combined with standard therapy was cost-effective at the WTP threshold of US$36,096.30 per QALY.

Conclusions

From the perspective of Chinese public healthcare system, the combined use of vericiguat and standard treatment in patients with HFrEF following WHF events did not generate advantages in cost–utility in China but was a cost-effective therapeutic strategy for those who with plasma NT-proBNP of ≤ 5314 pg per ml.