An evaluation of wildland fire simulators used operationally in Australia

IF 2.9 3区农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY

International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI:10.1071/wf23028

P. Fox-Hughes, C. Bridge, N. Faggian, C. Jolly, S. Matthews, E. Ebert, H. Jacobs, B. Brown, J. Bally

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Fire simulators are increasingly used to predict fire spread. Australian fire agencies have been concerned at not having an objective basis to choose simulators for this purpose.

Aims

We evaluated wildland fire simulators currently used in Australia: Australis, Phoenix, Prometheus and Spark. The evaluation results are outlined here, together with the evaluation framework.

Methods

Spatial metrics and visual aids were designed in consultation with simulator end-users to assess simulator performance. Simulations were compared against observations of fire progression data from 10 Australian historical fire case studies. For each case, baseline simulations were produced using as inputs fire ignition and fuel data together with gridded weather forecasts available at the time of the fire. Perturbed simulations supplemented baseline simulations to explore simulator sensitivity to input uncertainty.

Key results

Each simulator showed strengths and weaknesses. Some simulators displayed greater sensitivity to different parameters under certain conditions.

Conclusions

No simulator was clearly superior to others. The evaluation framework developed can facilitate future assessment of Australian fire simulators.

Implications

Collection of fire behaviour observations for routine simulator evaluation using this framework would benefit future simulator development.

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对澳大利亚实际使用的野外消防模拟器进行评估

背景火灾模拟器越来越多地被用于预测火灾蔓延。澳大利亚消防机构一直担心在选择模拟器时缺乏客观依据。目的我们对澳大利亚目前使用的野外火灾模拟器进行了评估：Australis、Phoenix、Prometheus 和 Spark。本文概述了评估结果以及评估框架。方法与模拟器最终用户协商设计空间指标和视觉辅助工具，以评估模拟器的性能。模拟结果与 10 个澳大利亚历史火灾案例研究中的火灾发展数据进行了比较。每个案例都使用火灾发生时的点火和燃料数据以及网格天气预报作为输入，进行基线模拟。扰动模拟对基线模拟进行了补充，以探索模拟器对输入不确定性的敏感性。主要结果每个模拟器都显示出优缺点。一些模拟器在某些条件下对不同参数的敏感度更高。结论没有任何模拟器明显优于其他模拟器。所制定的评估框架有助于今后对澳大利亚火灾模拟器进行评估。意义利用该框架收集火灾行为观测数据，用于日常模拟器评估，将有利于未来模拟器的开发。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Wildland Fire 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

9.70%

发文量

审稿时长

12-24 weeks

期刊介绍： International Journal of Wildland Fire publishes new and significant articles that advance basic and applied research concerning wildland fire. Published papers aim to assist in the understanding of the basic principles of fire as a process, its ecological impact at the stand level and the landscape level, modelling fire and its effects, as well as presenting information on how to effectively and efficiently manage fire. The journal has an international perspective, since wildland fire plays a major social, economic and ecological role around the globe. The International Journal of Wildland Fire is published on behalf of the International Association of Wildland Fire.