Determining Local Employment, Distribution, and Tax Revenue Effects of Changes in Forest and Range Policies

Abstract

A method to estimate the direct and indirect changes in local area employment, income distribution, and tax revenues is given and its usefulness for evaluating various Forest Service policies illustrated. Policies studied are those which decrease allowable timber cut by 10 percent, decrease animal units on the forest by 20 percent, and increase forest-related tourism by 10 percent in two trade areas of Arizona. The policies have a combined effect which only marginally changes employment in each area. Timber and range policies are regressive with respect to income distribution, and the tourism policy is progressive. The individual and combined effects of the assumed policies on tax revenues are small. Policy effects vary among areas of differing economic structures.