Development and validation of machine learning-based models for predicting healthcare-associated bacterial/fungal infections among COVID-19 inpatients: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

COVID-19 and bacterial/fungal coinfections have posed significant challenges to human health. However, there is a lack of good tools for predicting coinfection risk to aid clinical work. We aimed to investigate the risk factors for bacterial/fungal coinfection among COVID-19 patients and to develop machine learning models to estimate the risk of coinfection. In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled adult inpatients confirmed with COVID-19 in a tertiary hospital between January 1 and July 31, 2023, in China and collected baseline information at admission. All the data were randomly divided into a training set and a testing set at a ratio of 7:3. We developed the generalized linear and random forest models for coinfections in the training set and assessed the performance of the models in the testing set. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical applicability. A total of 1244 patients were included in the training cohort with 62 healthcare-associated bacterial/fungal infections, while 534 were included in the testing cohort with 22 infections. We found that patients with comorbidities (diabetes, neurological disease) were at greater risk for coinfections than were those without comorbidities (OR = 2.78, 95%CI = 1.61–4.86; OR = 1.93, 95%CI = 1.11–3.35). An indwelling central venous catheter or urinary catheter was also associated with an increased risk (OR = 2.53, 95%CI = 1.39–4.64; OR = 2.28, 95%CI = 1.24–4.27) of coinfections. Patients with PCT > 0.5 ng/ml were 2.03 times (95%CI = 1.41–3.82) more likely to be infected. Interestingly, the risk of coinfection was also greater in patients with an IL-6 concentration < 10 pg/ml (OR = 1.69, 95%CI = 0.97–2.94). Patients with low baseline creatinine levels had a decreased risk of bacterial/fungal coinfections(OR = 0.40, 95%CI = 0.22–0.71). The generalized linear and random forest models demonstrated favorable receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC = 0.87, 95%CI = 0.80–0.94; ROC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.82–0.93) with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 0.86vs0.75, 0.82vs0.86, 0.87vs0.74, respectively. The corresponding calibration evaluation P statistics were 0.883 and 0.769. Our machine learning models achieved strong predictive ability and may be effective clinical decision-support tools for identifying COVID-19 patients at risk for bacterial/fungal coinfection and guiding antibiotic administration. The levels of cytokines, such as IL-6, may affect the status of bacterial/fungal coinfection.