Trajectories of socio-ecological systems: A case study in the tropical Andes

IF 5.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Ambio Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI:10.1007/s13280-024-02002-x

Linda Berrio-Giraldo, Clara Villegas-Palacio, Santiago Arango-Aramburo, Lina Berrouet

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Abstract

Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.

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社会生态系统的轨迹：热带安第斯山脉案例研究

社会经济和环境研究中的情景和政策评估在社会生态系统（SES）中面临重大挑战。在综合方法中对不同情景的影响进行研究的数量有限，许多研究采用的是单一变化驱动因素的静态方法。本研究利用系统动力学模拟模型，在实施和分析与土地覆被和土地利用变化相关的情景和政策时，分析了哥伦比亚安第斯山脉一个战略流域的 SES 动态。该模型包括自然、生态系统服务、社会文化和经济组成部分。对各种方案和政策选项进行了单独和联合分析，以确定不同生态系统服务组成部分之间的协同效应或权衡效应。结果表明，根据所研究的情况，社会生态系统的轨迹各不相同，对所分析组成部分的不同变量也有影响。还发现了一些反直觉效应，如内在动机在决策过程中的重要性，以及土地管理和政策设计中的决定因素。

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来源期刊

Ambio 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

14.30

自引率

3.10%

发文量

123

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Explores the link between anthropogenic activities and the environment, Ambio encourages multi- or interdisciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. Ambio addresses the scientific, social, economic, and cultural factors that influence the condition of the human environment. Ambio particularly encourages multi- or inter-disciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. For more than 45 years Ambio has brought international perspective to important developments in environmental research, policy and related activities for an international readership of specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers and interested laymen.