Was the interest burden of the Ottoman public debt sustainable? A cliometric analysis

IF 2.5 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI:10.1108/jiabr-01-2024-0009

M. Kabir Hassan, Hasan Kazak, Melike Buse Akcan, Hasan Azazi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Ottoman Empire’s net interest payments and foreign debt were sustainable or not in terms of their burden on budget revenues, using the method of historical econometric analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the period between 1847 and 1882 of the Ottoman Empire is analyzed for sustainability analysis. Within the framework of the study, unit root tests and econometric analysis methods frequently used in the literature were used to analyze the sustainability of public debt. In the econometric analysis, in addition to various unit root tests, current econometric analysis methods, in particular Fourier expansion, were also used.

Findings

The results of econometric analyses showed that the burden of interest payments and foreign debt on the budget of the Ottoman state was unsustainable. This situation clearly shows the reason for the official bankruptcy of the Ottoman Empire, which was declared in 1875.

Practical implications

Although this study reveals the bankruptcy process of an important structure such as the Ottoman Empire in the historical process through econometric analyses, it also gives a very important message to today’s states. Accordingly, today’s state policies and decision-making mechanisms should take these results into account and strive to make the burden of public interest payments sustainable. It is believed that the study will shed light on the public finance policies of today’s states by drawing lessons from the collapse process of the Ottoman state.

Originality/value

Unlike the historical assessments in the literature on the decline of the Ottoman Empire, this study presents a cliometric approach by applying current econometric analysis techniques to past historical data. The study explains the unsustainability of the Ottoman Empire’s interest payments and external debt burden in the period under consideration in a way that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been done before.

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奥斯曼帝国公债的利息负担是可持续的吗？分类计量分析

本研究的目的是利用历史计量经济学分析方法，确定奥斯曼帝国的净利息支付和外债对预算收入造成的负担是否具有可持续性。在研究框架内，使用了文献中常用的单位根检验和计量经济学分析方法来分析公共债务的可持续性。计量经济学分析的结果表明，奥斯曼帝国预算中的利息支付和外债负担是不可持续的。虽然本研究通过计量经济学分析揭示了奥斯曼帝国这样一个重要结构在历史进程中的破产过程，但它也给当今国家带来了非常重要的启示。因此，当今的国家政策和决策机制应考虑到这些结果，并努力使公共利益支付负担可持续。原创性/价值与有关奥斯曼帝国衰落的文献中的历史评估不同，本研究通过将当前的计量经济学分析技术应用于过去的历史数据，提出了一种cliometric方法。据作者所知，该研究以一种前所未有的方式解释了奥斯曼帝国在报告所述期间的利息支付和外债负担的不可持续性。

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来源期刊

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

22.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal provides a dynamic forum for the advancement of accounting and business knowledge based on Shari’ah and Islamic activities that have an impact on the welfare of society. JIABR publishes articles on the interplay between Islamic business ethics, accounting, auditing and governance, in promoting accountability, socio-economic justice (adl) and everlasting success (al-falah). It seeks to inform, among others, current theoretical and empirical research and practice in Islamic accounting, auditing and corporate governance, management of Islamic organizations, accounting regulation and policy for Islamic institutions, Shari’ah auditing and corporate governance, financial and non-financial performance measurement and disclosure in Islamic institutions and organizations. All styles of research, theoretical and empirical, case studies, practice-based papers and research notes that are well written and falling within the journal''s scope, are generally welcomed by the journal. Scope/Coverage Development of accounting, auditing and corporate governance concepts based on Shari’ah Socio-political influence on accounting and auditing regulation and policy making for Islamic financial institutions and organizations Historical perspectives on Islamic accounting, auditing and financial management Critical analysis on issues and challenges on accounting disclosure and measurement, Shari’ah audit and corporate governance Controls and risks in Islamic organizations Financial and non-financial performance measurement and disclosure.