The European energy crisis, the Dutch TTF, and the market correction mechanism: a financial markets perspective

Abstract

In September 2022, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices spiked at unprecedented levels. For various reasons, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe was facing an energy crisis: gas supply was significantly reduced while demand remained unchanged. Policymakers responded with a variety of measures, including regulatory interventions on the TTF market. While seeking to improve the situation in the ‘real world economy’, these measures have an important financial regulatory angle. This article investigates the potential impact of these interventions, in particular of the Market Correction Mechanism, on the wholesale gas market from a financial markets perspective. Considering, amongst others, observations from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, the European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Central Bank, it appears that these interventions may have unintended negative consequences in light of the functioning and attractiveness of the Capital Markets Union and achieving strategic autonomy.