Spatio-temporal patterns of intense tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific over the past 1600 years

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Liang Zhou , Rumeng Hao , Mingchen Li , Yan Su , Shu Gao , Yang Yang , Zhixiong Shen , Jianjun Jia , YaPing Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

There are concerns that intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to become more frequent and powerful in warming climates. However, the long-term trend of TC activities, the spatiotemporal variability of such trends across different latitudes of the Western North Pacific (WNP), and the drives of the variability remain unclear. Here, we present a reconstruction of a 1600-year paleo-TCs activity using a sediment core taken in Li’an Lagoon located in southeastern Hainan Island, South China Sea. We used muti-dating methods (210Pb and AMS 14C dating) for age control and muti-proxy analysis (XRF geochemical element scanning and grain size analysis) for identifying periods of frequent intense TC activities. Based on an updated compilation of basin-wide paleo-TC records, we confirm that there exists a seesaw pattern of intense TC frequency between low and middle latitude in the WNP. Comparing with global and regional paleoclimate proxies, we propose that the basin-wide latitudinal TC activity variation in the WNP can be linked to the migration of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and its associated high-latitude forcings (e.g., NAO) and low-latitude internal variability forcings (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature (SST)). More intense TC will occur at low latitudes in the future, though with less frequency.

过去 1600 年西北太平洋强烈热带气旋的时空模式
人们担心,在气候变暖的情况下,强热带气旋(TC)会变得更加频繁和强大。然而,热带气旋活动的长期趋势、这种趋势在北太平洋西部(WNP)不同纬度的时空变异性以及变异性的驱动因素仍不清楚。在此,我们利用取自中国南海海南岛东南部黎安泻湖的沉积岩芯,重建了 1600 年的古 TCs 活动。我们使用多年代测定法(210Pb 和 AMS 14C 测定法)进行年代控制,并使用多代分析法(XRF 地球化学元素扫描和粒度分析)确定频繁的强烈 TCs 活动期。根据对全流域古TC记录的最新汇编,我们证实在大西北地区的低纬度和中纬度之间存在着强烈TC活动频率的跷跷板模式。通过与全球和区域古气候代用指标的比较,我们认为,西太平洋暖温带热带气旋活动的全海盆纬度变化与西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)的迁移及其相关的高纬度诱因(如NAO)和低纬度内部变率诱因(如厄尔尼诺南方涛动、海面温度)有关。未来低纬度地区将出现更强烈的气旋,但频率会降低。
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来源期刊
Marine Geology
Marine Geology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
175
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Marine Geology is the premier international journal on marine geological processes in the broadest sense. We seek papers that are comprehensive, interdisciplinary and synthetic that will be lasting contributions to the field. Although most papers are based on regional studies, they must demonstrate new findings of international significance. We accept papers on subjects as diverse as seafloor hydrothermal systems, beach dynamics, early diagenesis, microbiological studies in sediments, palaeoclimate studies and geophysical studies of the seabed. We encourage papers that address emerging new fields, for example the influence of anthropogenic processes on coastal/marine geology and coastal/marine geoarchaeology. We insist that the papers are concerned with the marine realm and that they deal with geology: with rocks, sediments, and physical and chemical processes affecting them. Papers should address scientific hypotheses: highly descriptive data compilations or papers that deal only with marine management and risk assessment should be submitted to other journals. Papers on laboratory or modelling studies must demonstrate direct relevance to marine processes or deposits. The primary criteria for acceptance of papers is that the science is of high quality, novel, significant, and of broad international interest.
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