Liang Zhou , Rumeng Hao , Mingchen Li , Yan Su , Shu Gao , Yang Yang , Zhixiong Shen , Jianjun Jia , YaPing Wang
{"title":"Spatio-temporal patterns of intense tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific over the past 1600 years","authors":"Liang Zhou , Rumeng Hao , Mingchen Li , Yan Su , Shu Gao , Yang Yang , Zhixiong Shen , Jianjun Jia , YaPing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.margeo.2024.107283","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There are concerns that intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to become more frequent and powerful in warming climates. However, the long-term trend of TC activities, the spatiotemporal variability of such trends across different latitudes of the Western North Pacific (WNP), and the drives of the variability remain unclear. Here, we present a reconstruction of a 1600-year paleo-TCs activity using a sediment core taken in Li’an Lagoon located in southeastern Hainan Island, South China Sea. We used muti-dating methods (<sup>210</sup>Pb and AMS <sup>14</sup>C dating) for age control and muti-proxy analysis (XRF geochemical element scanning and grain size analysis) for identifying periods of frequent intense TC activities. Based on an updated compilation of basin-wide paleo-TC records, we confirm that there exists a seesaw pattern of intense TC frequency between low and middle latitude in the WNP. Comparing with global and regional paleoclimate proxies, we propose that the basin-wide latitudinal TC activity variation in the WNP can be linked to the migration of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and its associated high-latitude forcings (e.g., NAO) and low-latitude internal variability forcings (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature (SST)). More intense TC will occur at low latitudes in the future, though with less frequency.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":18229,"journal":{"name":"Marine Geology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Marine Geology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025322724000677","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
There are concerns that intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to become more frequent and powerful in warming climates. However, the long-term trend of TC activities, the spatiotemporal variability of such trends across different latitudes of the Western North Pacific (WNP), and the drives of the variability remain unclear. Here, we present a reconstruction of a 1600-year paleo-TCs activity using a sediment core taken in Li’an Lagoon located in southeastern Hainan Island, South China Sea. We used muti-dating methods (210Pb and AMS 14C dating) for age control and muti-proxy analysis (XRF geochemical element scanning and grain size analysis) for identifying periods of frequent intense TC activities. Based on an updated compilation of basin-wide paleo-TC records, we confirm that there exists a seesaw pattern of intense TC frequency between low and middle latitude in the WNP. Comparing with global and regional paleoclimate proxies, we propose that the basin-wide latitudinal TC activity variation in the WNP can be linked to the migration of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and its associated high-latitude forcings (e.g., NAO) and low-latitude internal variability forcings (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature (SST)). More intense TC will occur at low latitudes in the future, though with less frequency.
期刊介绍:
Marine Geology is the premier international journal on marine geological processes in the broadest sense. We seek papers that are comprehensive, interdisciplinary and synthetic that will be lasting contributions to the field. Although most papers are based on regional studies, they must demonstrate new findings of international significance. We accept papers on subjects as diverse as seafloor hydrothermal systems, beach dynamics, early diagenesis, microbiological studies in sediments, palaeoclimate studies and geophysical studies of the seabed. We encourage papers that address emerging new fields, for example the influence of anthropogenic processes on coastal/marine geology and coastal/marine geoarchaeology. We insist that the papers are concerned with the marine realm and that they deal with geology: with rocks, sediments, and physical and chemical processes affecting them. Papers should address scientific hypotheses: highly descriptive data compilations or papers that deal only with marine management and risk assessment should be submitted to other journals. Papers on laboratory or modelling studies must demonstrate direct relevance to marine processes or deposits. The primary criteria for acceptance of papers is that the science is of high quality, novel, significant, and of broad international interest.