Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis

Abstract

This article presents a new interpretive framework for understanding the implications of climate change for migration, and reviews and reflects on existing evidence and research gaps in light of this framework. Most existing climate-migration research is heavily environment-centric, even when acknowledging the importance of contextual or intervening factors. In contrast, the framework proposed here considers five different pathways through which climate change is affecting, or might affect, migration: short-term shocks, long-term climatic and related changes, environmental “pull” factors, climate adaptation and mitigation measures, and perceptions and narratives. In reviewing the existing evidence relating to each of these pathways, the paper finds among other things that short-term shocks may simultaneously increase and reduce migration; that the evidence on long-term trends provides a weak basis for understanding future dynamics; and that more attention needs to be paid to the other three pathways, by researchers and policymakers alike. Overall, the proposed framework and associated evidence review suggest a different and broader understanding of the migration implications of climate change from that outlined in the IPCC's most recent assessment, or in many existing reviews.