Imagining Desirable Futures: A call for prospective theorizing with speculative rigour

A. A. Gümüşay, Juliane Reinecke
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Abstract

With the looming planetary emergency, the future will be anything but an extension of the past. Yet theorizing the future poses a peculiar problem. By definition, it is not present yet. The conundrum of the future is that it requires conceptualizing and theorizing what is not (yet) observable and does not (yet) exist. Scholars have called for more impactful theories; we argue that one powerful avenue to make organizational theories more impactful is to make them more future-oriented. In this article, we call for prospective theorizing, which we define as a future-oriented approach to theorizing that is concerned with imagining desirable futures. First, we argue that prospective theorizing involves a shift along two dimensions (onto-epistemological and axiological): from projection to imagination, and from values-neutral to values-led theorizing. Second, we suggest and promote prospective theorizing practices that might enable such a shift, distinguishing between inputs, throughputs and outputs of theorizing. Third, for such prospective theorizing to be scientifically evaluable and rigorous, we develop the notion of speculative rigour, and outline criteria of generative potency, process transparency, plausible desirability and speculative plausibility. Overall, we argue that prospective theorizing adds to greater plurality in our theorizing towards (re)generative scholarship for imagining desirable futures.
想象理想的未来:呼吁以推测的严谨态度进行前瞻性理论研究
随着地球紧急状况的迫近,未来将不再是过去的延伸。然而,对未来进行理论分析会带来一个特殊的问题。顾名思义,未来尚未到来。未来的难题在于,它需要将(尚未)可观察到的、(尚未)存在的事物概念化和理论化。学者们呼吁制定更具影响力的理论;我们认为,使组织理论更具影响力的一个有力途径就是使其更加面向未来。在本文中,我们呼吁前瞻性理论化,我们将其定义为一种面向未来的理论化方法,它关注的是对理想未来的想象。首先,我们认为前瞻性理论化涉及两个维度(认识论和公理)的转变:从投射到想象,从价值中立到价值主导的理论化。其次,我们建议并促进前瞻性理论化实践,以实现这种转变,并区分理论化的投入、产出和输出。第三,为了使这种前瞻性理论化具有科学的可评价性和严谨性,我们提出了推测严谨性的概念,并概述了生成效力、过程透明度、可信的可取性和推测可信性的标准。总之,我们认为,前瞻性理论化使我们的理论化更加多元化,从而为想象理想的未来提供(再)生成性学术研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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CiteScore
13.70
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