Modeling the process of attracting personnel to medical organizations providing medical care to the rural population.

Abstract

The shortage of medical specialists and their disproportionate distribution both across territories and specialties is a global health problem. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the shortage of medical personnel as of 2022 is 84.7 thousand people, of which 26.5 thousand are doctors; compared to 2021, the problem of shortage of nursing staff is less acute, but the shortage of doctors remains. An integral part of personnel policy is the process of retaining qualified specialists. The complex motivations of employees to stop or continue working in an organization interact with the personnel decisions of a healthcare organization, which in turn requires a joint study of both the characteristics of the employees and the characteristics of the organization. Purpose of the study is to model the process of attracting personnel to medical organizations providing medical care to the rural population. Materials and methods. Data on 151 students of targeted training who entered the Orenburg State Medical University in 2011 were studied. Using machine learning methods, a mathematical model was built that allows identifying students of targeted training with a higher probability of attraction to the medical organization. Results. The presented data set is unbalanced in terms of the target variable, since only 16.8% of students continued to work in the organization. Among all the options, the most optimal in cross-validation was the use of a decision tree using weights to balance the classes. All studied medical organizations can be divided into 3 groups: organizations with a low level of attraction of specialists, organizations with an average level of attraction of specialists and organizations with a high level of attraction of specialists. Based on the data obtained and analysis of publications, measures were proposed to improve the personnel policy of medical organizations of each type. Findings. Therefore, healthcare organizations have the opportunity to monitor the attraction process of targeted students through factors related to the characteristics of the organization, such as working conditions, reputation and image, career opportunities, and others.