{"title":"Pricing the common stocks in emerging markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty","authors":"Orbay Arkol, Asil Azimli","doi":"10.61351/mf.v2i1.93","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We examine the role of news-based policy uncertainty measures in capturing the cross-section of average stock returns in emerging markets. After controlling for the five established risk factors of Fama and French (FF), we find that policy uncertainty factors are redundant in capturing the average returns of portfolios constructed by considering well-known firm characteristics (size, book-to-market ratio, profitability, and investment). The pricing performance of the five factors model, both statistically and economically, does not improve with the addition of policy uncertainty factors. We argue that the news-based factors' information content is contained in FF risk factors. Our results are robust to additional test statistics and various policy uncertainty factors.","PeriodicalId":347908,"journal":{"name":"Modern Finance","volume":"635 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Modern Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.61351/mf.v2i1.93","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
We examine the role of news-based policy uncertainty measures in capturing the cross-section of average stock returns in emerging markets. After controlling for the five established risk factors of Fama and French (FF), we find that policy uncertainty factors are redundant in capturing the average returns of portfolios constructed by considering well-known firm characteristics (size, book-to-market ratio, profitability, and investment). The pricing performance of the five factors model, both statistically and economically, does not improve with the addition of policy uncertainty factors. We argue that the news-based factors' information content is contained in FF risk factors. Our results are robust to additional test statistics and various policy uncertainty factors.
我们研究了基于新闻的政策不确定性指标在捕捉新兴市场股票平均收益截面方面的作用。在控制了法马和弗伦奇(Fama and French,FF)的五个既定风险因子后,我们发现政策不确定性因子在捕捉通过考虑众所周知的公司特征(规模、账面市值比、盈利能力和投资)构建的投资组合的平均回报方面是多余的。从统计学和经济学角度看,五因素模型的定价性能并没有因为加入了政策不确定性因素而得到改善。我们认为,基于新闻的因子的信息内容包含在 FF 风险因子中。我们的结果对额外的测试统计和各种政策不确定性因素都是稳健的。