Dam Breakdown and Response of Protection Dam, Case Scenarios of Mosul-Badush Dams, Northern Iraq

Abstract

In this study, a program was built to simulate the sudden and complete collapse of the Mosul and Badush Dams behavior towards this collapse and predict the level at which the water will balance in the two dams after the collapse, compared to different levels at the Mosul Dam before the collapse. Two mathematical models were built as inputs to this program. The first predicted the water level in the Mosul Dam reservoir in terms of its storage volume before the collapse, and the second predicted the water level in the Badush reservoir after the collapse, according to the level in the Mosul reservoir before the collapse. For each collapse scenario, the program was organized according to sequential steps summarized assuming the water level in the Badush Dam reservoir when the level stabilizes, and from it determining the water volume in Badush reservoir based on the geometric analysis of the reservoir, then the volume of water transferred from Mosul reservoir to Badush reservoir, and thus the volume of water inside Mosul reservoir before the collapse. From the first mathematical model, the level of the Mosul Dam reservoir was determined before the collapse. The second mathematical model determined the level of the Badush Dam reservoir after the collapse. The results showed that the program has high flexibility in predicting what will happen in the Badush Dam reservoir after the collapse based on the water level in the Mosul Dam reservoir before it collapses and that the limits of the program's work extend from the minimum to the maximum level in Mosul Dam at which the failure can occur. Also, the storage volume in Mosul Dam will be distributed to the two reservoirs after the failure until the level stabilizes. Badush Dam, at a level of 330.4 m (a.s.l), can expand the maximum flood wave resulting from the total and sudden collapse of Mosul Dam at its maximum level of 333 m (a.s.l).