The Growth Prospects for Nigeria in Joining the African Continental Free Trade Area

Abstract

This paper examines the potential benefits and challenges of Nigeria joining the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, which aims to create a single market for goods and services across Africa. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we simulate the effects of trade liberalization under different scenarios of tariff reduction, trade facilitation, and regional integration. We find that Nigeria stands to gain from participating in the AfCFTA, especially if it is accompanied by improvements in infrastructure, customs procedures, and regulatory harmonization. However, we also identify some potential costs and risks, such as trade diversion, revenue loss, and adjustment costs for some sectors and regions. We recommend that Nigeria adopts a proactive and strategic approach to maximize the opportunities and mitigate the challenges of the AfCFTA, such as diversifying its export basket, enhancing its competitiveness, strengthening its domestic policies, and engaging in regional cooperation. Keywords: AfCFTA, Nigeria, trade liberalization, regional integration, computable general equilibrium model