The Macroeconomic Effect of Oil Sector Crisis in Libya

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Hasen A. Ben-Taher
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Abstract

This paper analyses and investigates the impact of the oil sector crisis on the Libyan economy from 2012 Q4 to 2022 Q3, using the Bai-Perron model and a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). The findings demonstrate that the multiple structural breaks test statistics approved that nearly all of the study's variables had a structural break at years around political division and political agreement. In contrast to inflation, the results of the impulse response functions (IRFs) indicate that the shock to oil revenue had a considerable negative impact on the money supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, the study reveals that, with the exception of claims on the government with the central bank, shocks to oil revenue are the major contributors to variance decomposition for all variables. The results reveal that oil revenue, in particular, accounts for roughly 16%, 13%, and 16% of the variance decomposition of the money supply, exchange rate, and inflation rate, respectively. As a result, the oil sector crisis is a controlling factor in the explanation of variations in these variables. The study concluded that oil sector revenues have a sensitive impact on the Libyan economy and that the latter has a strong tide with a secure environment and political stability.
利比亚石油行业危机的宏观经济影响
本文利用贝-珀伦模型和结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),分析和研究了 2012 年第四季度至 2022 年第三季度石油行业危机对利比亚经济的影响。研究结果表明,多重结构断裂检验统计结果表明,几乎所有研究变量都在政治分裂和政治协议前后的年份出现了结构断裂。与通货膨胀相反,脉冲响应函数(IRF)的结果表明,石油收入的冲击对货币供应量和汇率产生了相当大的负面影响。此外,研究还显示,除政府对中央银行的债权外,石油收入的冲击是所有变量方差分解的主要因素。结果显示,石油收入尤其在货币供应量、汇率和通货膨胀率的方差分解中分别占大约 16%、13% 和 16%。因此,石油部门危机是解释这些变量变化的一个控制因素。研究得出结论,石油部门的收入对利比亚经济有着敏感的影响,而后者与安全的环境和政治稳定有着紧密的联系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
16.70%
发文量
20
审稿时长
30 weeks
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