Richard Robertson, Athanasios Petsakos, Chun Song, Nicola Cenacchi, Elisabetta Gotor
{"title":"“Fruit basket upset”: spatially explicit crop mixture responses to climatic and economic pressures","authors":"Richard Robertson, Athanasios Petsakos, Chun Song, Nicola Cenacchi, Elisabetta Gotor","doi":"10.1108/caer-04-2023-0098","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe choice of crops to produce at a location depends to a large degree on the climate. As the climate changes and food demand evolves, farmers may need to produce a different mix of crops. This study assesses how much cropland may be subject to such upheavals at the global scale, and then focuses on China as a case study to examine how spatial heterogeneity informs different contexts for adaptation within a country.Design/methodology/approachA global agricultural economic model is linked to a cropland allocation algorithm to generate maps of cropland distribution under historical and future conditions. The mix of crops at each location is examined to determine whether it is likely to experience a major shift.FindingsTwo-thirds of rainfed cropland and half of irrigated cropland are likely to experience substantial upheaval of some kind.Originality/valueThis analysis helps establish a global context for the local changes that producers might face under future climate and socioeconomic changes. The scale of the challenge means that the agricultural sector needs to prepare for these widespread and diverse upheavals.","PeriodicalId":10095,"journal":{"name":"China Agricultural Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"China Agricultural Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-04-2023-0098","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
PurposeThe choice of crops to produce at a location depends to a large degree on the climate. As the climate changes and food demand evolves, farmers may need to produce a different mix of crops. This study assesses how much cropland may be subject to such upheavals at the global scale, and then focuses on China as a case study to examine how spatial heterogeneity informs different contexts for adaptation within a country.Design/methodology/approachA global agricultural economic model is linked to a cropland allocation algorithm to generate maps of cropland distribution under historical and future conditions. The mix of crops at each location is examined to determine whether it is likely to experience a major shift.FindingsTwo-thirds of rainfed cropland and half of irrigated cropland are likely to experience substantial upheaval of some kind.Originality/valueThis analysis helps establish a global context for the local changes that producers might face under future climate and socioeconomic changes. The scale of the challenge means that the agricultural sector needs to prepare for these widespread and diverse upheavals.
期刊介绍:
Published in association with China Agricultural University and the Chinese Association for Agricultural Economics, China Agricultural Economic Review publishes academic writings by international scholars, and particularly encourages empirical work that can be replicated and extended by others; and research articles that employ econometric and statistical hypothesis testing, optimization and simulation models. The journal aims to publish research which can be applied to China’s agricultural and rural policy-making process, the development of the agricultural economics discipline and to developing countries hoping to learn from China’s agricultural and rural development.