Changes in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropicalcyclone frequency following volcanic eruptions

L. Andreasen, Joona Cornér, Peter Abbott, Victoria A. Sinclair, Felix Riede, C. Timmreck
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Abstract

Explosive volcanic eruptions are well known to influence Earth’s temperature. Changes in Earth’s temperature can affect temperature gradients which in turn could affect the isentropic slope and hence Northern Hemisphere high and mid- latitude weather. Yet, the possible influence of volcanic eruptions on these atmospheric circulation patterns and the potential spatial extent are not well understood. To address this issue, we pursue two independent lines of evidence. Firstly, we simulate volcanic eruptions with the MPI-ESM1.2 Earth System Model and use the TRACK algorithm to explore how extra-tropical cyclone frequency is affected in the model experiments. Secondly, we query the Greenland ice core NEEM-2011-S1 for indications of increased Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone frequency correlating with evidence for explosive volcanism by comparing the storm proxies sodium (Na) and calcium (Ca); with the eruption proxy sulphur (S). Both the model and proxy evidence suggest that large explosive volcanic eruptions increase storminess around the location of the ice core. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that the number of extra-tropical cyclones increases in the subtropics and at high latitudes, while they decrease in the mid-latitudes. A detailed interrogation of the simulated eruptions reveals that increases in cyclone frequency are linked to steepening of the isentropic slope due to a larger meridional temperature gradient and to a lower tropopause. The steepening is driven by a combination of warming of the tropical stratosphere from absorption of longwave radiation by volcanic aerosols and surface cooling due to the scattering of sunlight by the same aerosols, whereas the lower tropopause may be attributed to a warmer stratosphere.
火山爆发后北半球热带外气旋频率的变化
众所周知,火山爆发会影响地球温度。地球温度的变化会影响温度梯度,而温度梯度又会影响等熵斜率,从而影响北半球高纬度和中纬度的天气。然而,火山爆发对这些大气环流模式可能产生的影响以及潜在的空间范围还不甚了解。为了解决这个问题,我们寻求两个独立的证据。首先,我们利用 MPI-ESM1.2 地球系统模型模拟火山爆发,并使用 TRACK 算法探索在模型实验中热带气旋频率如何受到影响。其次,我们查询了格陵兰冰芯 NEEM-2011-S1,通过比较风暴代用指标钠(Na)和钙(Ca)以及火山爆发代用指标硫(S),寻找北半球热带气旋频率增加与火山爆发证据相关的迹象。模型和代用证据都表明,大规模的火山爆发会增加冰芯位置周围的风暴。此外,模拟结果表明,热带外气旋的数量在亚热带和高纬度地区有所增加,而在中纬度地区则有所减少。对模拟爆发的详细分析显示,气旋频率的增加与等熵斜率的陡峭化有关,而等熵斜率的陡峭化是由于更大的经向温度梯度和更低的对流层顶造成的。等熵斜率增大的原因是热带平流层因火山气溶胶吸收长波辐射而变暖,以及同样的气溶胶对太阳光的散射导致地表冷却,而对流层顶降低的原因可能是平流层变暖。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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