Risks and financial performance of Indian banks: a cursory look at the COVID-19 period

Anju Goswami, Pooja Malik
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Abstract

PurposeThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused financial stress and limited their lending agility, resulting in more non-performing loans (NPLs) and lower performance during the II wave of the coronavirus crisis. Therefore, it is essential to identify the risky factors influencing the financial performance of Indian banks spanning 2018–2022.Design/methodology/approachOur sample consists of a balanced panel dataset of 75 scheduled commercial banks from three different ownership groups, including public, private and foreign banks, that were actively engaged in their operations during 2018–2022. Factor identification is performed via a fixed-effects model (FEM) that solves the issue of heterogeneity across different with banks over time. Additionally, to ensure the robustness of our findings, we also identify the risky drivers of the financial performance of Indian banks using an alternative measure, the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) model.FindingsEmpirical evidence indicates that default risk, solvency risk and COVAR reduce financial performance in India. However, high liquidity, Z-score and the COVID-19 crisis enhance the financial performance of Indian banks. Unsystematic risk and systemic risk factors play an important role in determining the prognosis of COVID-19. The study supports the “bad-management,” “moral hazard” and “tail risk spillover of a single bank to the system” hypotheses. Public sector banks (PSBs) have considerable potential to achieve financial performance while controlling unsystematic risk and exogenous shocks relative to their peer group. Finally, robustness check estimates confirm the coefficients of the main model.Practical implicationsThis study contributes to the knowledge in the banking literature by identifying risk factors that may affect financial performance during a crisis nexus and providing information about preventive measures. These insights are valuable to bankers, academics, managers and regulators for policy formulation. The findings of this paper provide important insights by considering all the risk factors that may be responsible for reducing the probability of financial performance in the banking system of an emerging market economy.Originality/valueThe empirical analysis has been done with a fresh perspective to consider unsystematic risk, systemic risk and exogenous risk (COVID-19) with the financial performance of Indian banks. Furthermore, none of the existing banking literature explicitly explores the drivers of the I and II waves of COVID-19 while considering COVID-19 as a dependent variable. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to make efforts in this direction.
印度银行的风险和财务业绩:对 COVID-19 期间的粗略考察
目的新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)造成了金融压力,限制了银行贷款的灵活性,导致不良贷款(NPL)增加,在冠状病毒危机第二波期间业绩下降。因此,有必要识别影响 2018-2022 年印度银行财务表现的风险因素。设计/方法/途径我们的样本由一个平衡面板数据集组成,其中包含 2018-2022 年期间积极开展经营活动的 75 家预定商业银行,这些银行来自三个不同的所有权群体,包括公共银行、私营银行和外资银行。通过固定效应模型(FEM)进行因子识别,解决了不同银行随时间变化的异质性问题。此外,为确保研究结果的稳健性,我们还采用了另一种衡量方法--集合普通最小二乘法(OLS)模型,来识别印度银行财务绩效的风险驱动因素。研究结果经验证据表明,违约风险、偿付能力风险和 COVAR 会降低印度的财务绩效。然而,高流动性、Z-score 和 COVID-19 危机提高了印度银行的财务绩效。非系统性风险和系统性风险因素在决定 COVID-19 的预后方面发挥了重要作用。研究支持 "管理不善"、"道德风险 "和 "单家银行尾部风险溢出到系统 "的假设。与同业相比,公共部门银行(PSBs)在控制非系统风险和外生冲击的同时,在实现财务绩效方面具有相当大的潜力。最后,稳健性检验估计值证实了主模型的系数。 实际意义本研究通过识别危机关联期间可能影响财务业绩的风险因素并提供有关预防措施的信息,为银行业文献的研究做出了贡献。这些见解对银行家、学者、管理者和监管者制定政策很有价值。本文的研究结果考虑了可能会降低新兴市场经济体银行系统财务业绩概率的所有风险因素,从而提供了重要的见解。 原创性/价值本文以全新的视角进行了实证分析,考虑了非系统风险、系统风险和外生风险(COVID-19)与印度银行财务业绩的关系。此外,在将 COVID-19 作为因变量的同时,现有的银行文献均未明确探讨 COVID-19 的第一波和第二波的驱动因素。因此,本研究的目的就是朝着这个方向努力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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