Türkiye’nin Gelenek Dışı Para Politikasının Lisanssız Güneş Santrallerinin Kârlılığı Üzerine Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Türkiye’s unorthodox monetary policy implemented between September 2021 and June 2023 affected many macroeconomic indicators including inflation. Turkish Central Bank’s (CBRT) continuous lowering of the policy interest rate increased the negative real interest rate constantly. As a result, households invested in alternative assets including housing, foreign currency and gold in order to hedge against inflation. This increase in demand soared real estate prices. Besides, land is an important cost item for solar power plant investments. Considering the linear relationship between land prices and housing prices, this paper investigates the effect of the increase in housing prices on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of 37 unlicensed solar power plant projects in Türkiye. According to the results, a correlation of -0.97 was determined between the real interest rate and housing price index in Türkiye. In addition, a correlation of 0.20 was found between housing price index and the CAPEX of unlicensed solar power plants. This situation indicates that the increase in housing prices primarily due to the unorthodox monetary policy might adversely affected the profitability of unlicensed solar power plants, since CAPEX is an important factor affecting the profitability. Although the unconventional monetary policy has been abandoned as of July 2023, the negative effects of this policy on the economy, especially inflation, still continue. Policies and practices that would increase the profitability of solar power plants will make significant contribution to the renewable energy investors and Türkiye's green transition. In this context, development and issuance of carbon development credits under the voluntary carbon market standards such as Global Carbon Council (GCC) Standard and International Carbon Standard (ICR) presents additionality to support solar power plant investors and help the country to reach her carbon neutrality target.