State-of-the-art climate models reduce dominant dynamical uncertainty in projections of extreme precipitation

N. Ritzhaupt, D. Maraun
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Abstract

Extreme precipitation can lead to severe environmental and economic impacts. Thus, future changes in extreme precipitation and their uncertainties are of major interest. Changes in extreme precipitation can be decomposed into thermodynamic (temperature-related) and dynamic (vertical velocity related) contributions with a scaling approach for extreme precipitation. Applying this approach to the global climate model ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we decompose projection uncertainties of extremes in daily precipitation into uncertainties of thermodynamic and dynamic changes. We analyze regional patterns of the total uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections, as well as the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to these uncertainties. Total uncertainties relative to the projected multi model mean are dominated by the dynamical contributions, and are large over the tropics and subtropics, but smaller over the high and mid-latitudes. Uncertainties in the thermodynamic contribution are generally small. From CMIP5 to CMIP6, uncertainties in thermodynamic and dynamic changes are slightly reduced in the high and mid-latitudes, while there is a substantial reduction of the uncertainties of the dynamic changes in the tropics and subtropics.
最先进的气候模型减少了极端降水预测中的主要动态不确定性
极端降水可导致严重的环境和经济影响。因此,极端降水的未来变化及其不确定性是人们关注的焦点。极端降水量的变化可通过极端降水量的缩放方法分解为热力学(与温度相关)和动力学(与垂直速度相关)贡献。将这种方法应用于全球气候模式集合 CMIP5 和 CMIP6,我们将极端日降水量的预测不确定性分解为热力学和动力学变化的不确定性。我们分析了极端降水预测总不确定性的区域模式,以及热力学和动力学对这些不确定性的贡献。相对于预测的多模式平均值而言,总的不确定性主要来自于动态变化,热带和亚热带地区的不确定性较大,而高纬度和中纬度地区的不确定性较小。热力学贡献的不确定性一般较小。从 CMIP5 到 CMIP6,高纬度和中纬度地区热力学和动力学变化的不确定性略有降低,而热带和亚热带地区动力学变化的不确定性大幅降低。
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