Crude oil price, manufacturing index, and consumer price index: Is there any temporal link in India?

IF 1.7 Q3 MANAGEMENT

IIMB Management Review Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.iimb.2024.03.007

Utpal Kumar De , Girijasankar Mallik

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper, the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the impact of global crude oil price on manufacturing output in India and the behaviour of consumer price index. Error correction model, co-integration and multivariate GARCH model models are used for the analysis. ARDL analysis shows a significant relation between consumer price index (CPI) and manufacturing index (MI). Also, a significant inverse relation is established between crude oil price with MI and a positive relation between MI and CPI. Despite an inconsistent short run relation between petrol price with CPI, rising fuel price shows dampening impact on manufacturing output in the long run.

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原油价格、制造业指数和消费者价格指数：印度是否存在时间联系？

本文采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型来研究全球原油价格对印度制造业产出的影响以及消费者价格指数的行为。分析中使用了误差修正模型、协整模型和多元 GARCH 模型。ARDL 分析表明，消费价格指数（CPI）与制造业指数（MI）之间存在显著关系。此外，原油价格与 MI 之间存在明显的反向关系，MI 与 CPI 之间存在正向关系。尽管汽油价格与 CPI 之间的短期关系不一致，但从长期来看，燃料价格上涨对制造业产出产生了抑制作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

IIMB Management Review MANAGEMENT-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

68 days

期刊介绍： IIMB Management Review (IMR) is a quarterly journal brought out by the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore. Addressed to management practitioners, researchers and academics, IMR aims to engage rigorously with practices, concepts and ideas in the field of management, with an emphasis on providing managerial insights, in a reader friendly format. To this end IMR invites manuscripts that provide novel managerial insights in any of the core business functions. The manuscript should be rigorous, that is, the findings should be supported by either empirical data or a well-justified theoretical model, and well written. While these two requirements are necessary for acceptance, they do not guarantee acceptance. The sole criterion for publication is contribution to the extant management literature.Although all manuscripts are welcome, our special emphasis is on papers that focus on emerging economies throughout the world. Such papers may either improve our understanding of markets in such economies through novel analyses or build models by taking into account the special characteristics of such economies to provide guidance to managers.