Climate Change as a New Factor of International Relations

Abstract

This article explores the escalating impact of climate change and the global green transition on international relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement in 2015. While physical risks stemming directly from climate change consequences are a concern, the rise of transition risks associated with the global green shift poses significant threats to societies, political systems, and economies. The current emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement are deemed inadequate to address the mounting physical risks, underscoring the imperative of enhancing states’ climate security. Transition risks are intricately linked to the fragmentation of global politics, driven by varying climate ambitions and disagreements on decarbonization methods among states. Fault lines emerge based on factors such as fossil fuel abundance, states’ positions in energy geopolitics, socio-economic development levels, utilization of green transition opportunities, and participation in international climate agreements. In this context, Russia confronts numerous risks, compelling the nation to articulate and advocate its unique vision of decarbonization while fostering alliances with non-Western states in this critical domain.