Fragility assessment for the rainfall-induced embankments on silty soils

Frontiers in Built Environment Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI:10.3389/fbuil.2024.1389576

Hai-zuo Zhou, Fujian Ma, Xiaoxuan Yu, Gang Zheng

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Abstract

The fragility curve expresses the probability that an asset exceeds some serviceability state for a given level of environmental perturbation or other loadings. It is an important component in the quantitative risk analysis and resilience evaluation of infrastructure exposed to natural hazards. Incidences of over-settlement of embankments are increasingly reported due to more intense and longer-duration rainfall events. This paper develops fragility curves for the rainfall-induced embankment settlement. For this purpose, an embankment incorporating enhanced seepage and displacement analysis within unsaturated soil conditions is modelled based on a reported case history. A Monte Carlo simulation is used for rainfall infiltration and embankment deformation analysis under various rainfall scenarios. Probability values are obtained to achieve three levels of damage states in terms of road embankment settlement. The parametric analysis produces the exceedance probability curves for various rainfall intensities, saturated permeabilities and embankment slope angles. This work offers an efficient tool for assessing fragility to rainfall-induced excessive settlement of embankments.

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淤泥质土壤上由降雨引发的堤坝脆性评估

脆性曲线表示在一定程度的环境扰动或其他负载下，资产超过某种可用性状态的概率。它是对面临自然灾害的基础设施进行定量风险分析和复原力评估的重要组成部分。由于降雨强度更大、持续时间更长，有关堤坝过度沉降的报道越来越多。本文针对降雨引起的路堤沉降制定了脆性曲线。为此，根据报告的历史案例，对非饱和土壤条件下的路堤进行了强化渗流和位移分析建模。在各种降雨情况下，采用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行降雨渗透和路堤变形分析。得出的概率值可实现三种级别的路堤沉降破坏状态。参数分析得出了不同降雨强度、饱和渗透率和路堤坡角下的超限概率曲线。这项工作为评估降雨引起路堤过度沉降的脆弱性提供了一个有效的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Frontiers in Built Environment

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