Risk of Pseudomonas aeruginosa antimicrobial resistance using time series analysis of antibiotic usage

IF 1 Q4 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY

Journal of Pharmacy Practice and Research Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI:10.1002/jppr.1911

Geordan Papacostas BMedSci, Gary D. Grant PhD, Susan Hall PhD

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Antimicrobial resistance is emerging as one of the most potentially disastrous threats of the 21st century. Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) is a leading resistant pathogen and is clinically significant due to its limited available treatment using antibiotics. Rising resistance of P. aeruginosa is of increasing concern and it is currently listed as one of the top three critically resistant pathogens by the World Health Organization. It is currently known that resistance in P. aeruginosa is significantly linked with the consumption of all antibiotics, making usage surveillance of particular concern.

Aim

The aim of the current study was to model current and future antibiotic usage using available prescription data for antipseudomonal antibiotics.

Method

A time-series analysis was performed on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme/Repatriation Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data from January 2000–June 2020 using Facebook Prophet time-series methods in Python 3.9.14 to analyse and forecast trends to 2025. Ethical approval was not required for this research article as it used publicly available data and did not involve human subjects.

Results

The usage of antipseudomonal antibiotics decreased by 14.3% from 2014 to 2020 (95% confidence interval [CI] −30.4% to 2.3%) and is projected to further decrease by 11.7% by 2025 (95% CI −30.6% to 7.3%).

Conclusion

The current study showed a decline in the use of certain antipseudomonal antibiotics in Australia since 2015 and projects that their use will continue to decline. This is likely due to an increased judicious use of these antibiotics.

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利用抗生素使用时间序列分析铜绿假单胞菌抗菌药耐药性的风险

抗菌药耐药性正在成为 21 世纪最具潜在灾难性的威胁之一。铜绿假单胞菌（P. aeruginosa）是一种主要的耐药性病原体，由于其可用的抗生素治疗方法有限，因此具有重要的临床意义。铜绿假单胞菌耐药性的上升日益引起人们的关注，目前已被世界卫生组织列为三大严重耐药病原体之一。目前已知，铜绿假单胞菌的耐药性与所有抗生素的使用量密切相关，因此对其使用情况的监控尤为重要。本研究旨在利用现有的抗假单胞菌抗生素处方数据，对当前和未来的抗生素使用情况进行建模。研究人员使用 Python 3.9.14 中的 Facebook Prophet 时间序列方法，对 2000 年 1 月至 2020 年 6 月的药品福利计划/遣返药品福利计划数据进行了时间序列分析，以分析和预测 2025 年的趋势。从2014年到2020年，抗假性抗生素的使用量减少了14.3%（95%置信区间[CI] -30.4%至2.3%），预计到2025年将进一步减少11.7%（95%置信区间-30.6%至7.3%）。这可能是由于这些抗生素的合理使用有所增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Pharmacy Practice and Research Health Professions-Pharmacy

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of this document is to describe the structure, function and operations of the Journal of Pharmacy Practice and Research, the official journal of the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia (SHPA). It is owned, published by and copyrighted to SHPA. However, the Journal is to some extent unique within SHPA in that it ‘…has complete editorial freedom in terms of content and is not under the direction of the Society or its Council in such matters…’. This statement, originally based on a Role Statement for the Editor-in-Chief 1993, is also based on the definition of ‘editorial independence’ from the World Association of Medical Editors and adopted by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors.