Prevailing and Maximum Drought Intervals in the Iraqi Mesopotamia Plain Region: Index-Based Estimation

IF 0.4 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI:10.3233/ajw240017

H.S. Mohammed, M.A. Shlash, H.H. Mahdi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Drought indices are an effective tool for evaluating the impact of drought on environments, such as its duration and severity. Here, monitoring and evaluation of meteorological drought were conducted for 3-decades (1984-2014) in the Mesopotamia Plain Region in Iraq using the Drought Indices Calculator DrinC1.7(91) software based on monthly precipitation data recorded by thirteen stations covering the overall study area. The calculations for the standardised precipitation index (SPI), the exceedance probability, the frequency of repetitions of consecutive drought years, and the return period were conducted. Results revealed that the general average drought level was moderately dry, and in most parts of the study region, the percentage of rainy years is less than the dry years, where, on the average annual yearly scale, it is 40% for rainy years and 60% for the dry years. Moreover, the exceedance probability and the frequency decrease when the drought interval increases and the dominant event is a one-year drought and the maximum drought interval occurred within the return period of 3-decades was eight consecutive years (1998-2006), with a 3.33% exceedance probability.

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伊拉克美索不达米亚平原地区的普遍和最大干旱间隔：基于指数的估算

干旱指数是评估干旱对环境影响（如持续时间和严重程度）的有效工具。本文使用干旱指数计算软件 DrinC1.7(91)，根据覆盖整个研究区域的 13 个站点记录的月降水量数据，对伊拉克美索不达米亚平原地区 3 个十年（1984-2014 年）的气象干旱进行了监测和评估。对标准化降水指数 (SPI)、超标概率、连续干旱年的重复频率和重现期进行了计算。结果显示，总体平均干旱程度为中度干旱，在研究区域的大部分地区，多雨年份的比例小于干旱年份的比例，按年均比例计算，多雨年份为 40%，干旱年份为 60%。此外，当干旱间隔增加时，超标概率和频率都会降低，主要事件为一年干旱，在 3 个十年重现期内出现的最大干旱间隔为连续 8 年（1998-2006 年），超标概率为 3.33%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Asia, as a whole region, faces severe stress on water availability, primarily due to high population density. Many regions of the continent face severe problems of water pollution on local as well as regional scale and these have to be tackled with a pan-Asian approach. However, the available literature on the subject is generally based on research done in Europe and North America. Therefore, there is an urgent and strong need for an Asian journal with its focus on the region and wherein the region specific problems are addressed in an intelligent manner. In Asia, besides water, there are several other issues related to environment, such as; global warming and its impact; intense land/use and shifting pattern of agriculture; issues related to fertilizer applications and pesticide residues in soil and water; and solid and liquid waste management particularly in industrial and urban areas. Asia is also a region with intense mining activities whereby serious environmental problems related to land/use, loss of top soil, water pollution and acid mine drainage are faced by various communities. Essentially, Asians are confronted with environmental problems on many fronts. Many pressing issues in the region interlink various aspects of environmental problems faced by population in this densely habited region in the world. Pollution is one such serious issue for many countries since there are many transnational water bodies that spread the pollutants across the entire region. Water, environment and pollution together constitute a three axial problem that all concerned people in the region would like to focus on.